Saturday, September 3, 2011

My Thoughts on the Big Brother Final 5

I am not doing Big Brother reviews this season, since I just started the blog last week so there is no real point with the show almost over. I figured my Big Brother reviews would just wait until next year.

But as the show is now in the final five, I thought I would give my thoughts on the possible final two scenarios and how I think they would turn out. Like all my talk on TV shows this is spoiler free. But since veto hasn't been played yet, spoiler or not any of these combinations are possible

Rachel vs Adam - I put this up because it is the easiest one. Rachel would have three guaranteed votes in Jeff, Jordan and Brendon. Adam might think his friendship with Jeff will help sway his vote but I doubt it, his friendship was more Jeff using him than Adam would like to believe.

So right off the bat that gives Rachel 3 votes. The question then becomes will Rachel's nastiness to everyone be enough to do her in with the newbies and Dani? It is hard to say. Dani, Porsche and Shelly have had more than their issues with Rachel. And Kalia is no fan either. But about the only thing everyone from the jury phase onward has agreed on is that Adam has been useless, done nothing, made no game moves, and is on the side of whoever has the most power that week. And they are all right.

If everyone means what they have said all season long about anti-floaters, I think Rachel would get the votes. But I am just not sure the same people Rachel has been so nasty too will turn around and give her the money. Their personal feelings about Adam's game aside.

Most think Rachel can beat Adam hands down, but I am starting to think if these two go against each other that the record of men always beating women in the final 2 may stay intact.

Rachel vs Porsche - This one is kind of hard. Like anyone who isn't Jordan, going up against Rachel means you lose three votes off the bat in Jeff, Jordan and Brendon. But Porsche would have two almost guaranteed votes in Dani and Kalia. Which makes it 3-2.

So could Porsche get Adam and Shelly's votes for the win? That is hard to say. Shelly seems to hate Rachel, and I am sure Rachel's goodbye message did her no favors. I think Adam would vote for Rachel, as people seem to think Porsche has played less than Rachel. I disagree, as they were tied for wins this season until BB started throwing out contest designed for Rachel to win. But it doesn't matter what I think, it matters what Shelly and Adam think.

I really am not sure, I think it would be close but I give the edge to Rachel. I am not certain what Shelly would do but I think Adam would give Rachel the 4th vote she needs. Of course if Rachel makes some nasty remarks to Adam about his floating in her goodbye, a real possibility as Rachel is proving to be that big of an idiot, then it might change. But as it stands now, I think Rachel would have the votes.

Rachel vs Kalia - For the most part what I said about Rachel vs Porsche applies to Kalia vs Rachel. Rachel would have Jeff, Brendon and Jordan's vote, and Kalia would have Porsche and Dani's vote.

I do think Shelly would be more likely to vote for Kalia as she liked Kalia and hated Rachel. So it would likeley be up to Adam to be the swing vote. I think given those choices Adam would vote for who he thinks played the best game. While I disagree, he seems to think Kalia, skated until the final weeks. I do NOT agree with that at all and even if she only stepped up near the end, that is more than Adam has ever done. But Adam is an idiot, so I think he will give Rachel the vote she needs to beat Kalia. It would be close though. 

Rachel vs Jordan - Ironically, Rachel's biggest Ally is the one person I don't truly think she can beat. Yes Rachel has played the game and Jordan has done absolutely nothing but win a contest Jeff and Brendon threw to her. 

Yes Rachel took them both off the block last week, and if it wasn't for the couples twist Jordan would have been going home when Rachel won the Veto. Rachel is better at playing the game than Jordan, mostly because she has been playing and Jordan has been vegetating.

It doesn't matter. Jordan will win in a landslide if they are the final 2. Brendon would obviously vote for Rachel but I think he would be the only one.

Jeff would vote for Jordan of course. Shelly I also think is a given to vote for Jordan, she hates Rachel and wants redemption from Jeff and Jordan.

Kalia and Porsche do not like Rachel and like Jordan. Dani dislikes Rachel a lot and got an unnecessarily nasty goodbye message from Rachel to boot. Adam might vote for Rachel as he arguably would respect she played the game more than Jordan, and is a super fan. But if he saw no one else would I think he would wuss out and go with the majority to the very end.

If Jordan wasn't so sweet and likable Rachel might get votes out of respect for her game. Evil Dick got votes despite being much worse to people than Rachel was. But I just don't buy that the majority of the jury would ever reward Rachel for her nastiness against the most liked person in the house. Rachel just sucks too much at the social game to overcome that.

Porsche vs Kalia - This would be a tough one. Since no one would really be a guaranteed vote. Dani would probably be the closest to a guaranteed vote. She was allies with both of these girls, but her first loyalty was always to Kalia so I am sure she would vote for Kalia. But I am not really sure what anyone else would do. 

Their game play has been similar and as it stands now they have both won the same number of competitions. There is some edge to Kalia since she has won two HOH's to Porsche's one HOH and one Veto she won while not up on the block. But truthfully, everyone is assuming they are Dani's puppets. So I think game wise the jury will see them as the same. So in this case I think it would be solely based on who the jury liked the most, given there wasn't much else to argue. 

Kalia was the one who put up and voted out Jeff in the tie breaker. Of course they blamed it all on Shelly and Porsche could have saved Jeff and didn't, so they might hold Porsche and Kalia equally responsible.

I am just not sure. But I think at the end of the day people liked Kalia better as a person that Porsche. Plus. Porsche's has made it clear she came to BB solely for the exposure. That could make people not want to vote for her.

I think at the end of the day Kalia would win solely because she is slightly more liked.

Porsche vs Adam - I think Porsche would defeat Adam in a landslide in this one. No way Porsche wouldn't have Dani and Kalia's votes so she would be halfway to the 4 she needed right there.

And the truth is that Adam has done nothing and everyone knows it. He has had no game. He has won nothing and done nothing but literally float to whoever has the power every time. For all the criticism people give Porsche for not playing until the end, Adam hasn't played at all.

Shelly likes Adam and dislikes Porsche, so she might give Adam a mercy vote. I guess it is also possible Adam actually had enough of a friendship with Jeff to get him and Jordan's vote... but I doubt it. Even if so, that is only three votes and I don't think Brendon and Rachel would give it to a "megga super floater."

Everyone is too into the anti-floater camp for me to believe that they would reward him with the money. Especially if they were sitting there after being voted out while he wasn't. At least in their mind.

If Adam is really, really, REALLY lucky it will be a close loss instead of losing by a landslide. I do think those are the only two possible outcomes.

Porsche vs Jordan - Porsche would lose. Period. I hate to say it, but she would.

Jordan would have Jeff's vote and despite Rachel and Brendon's claim of hating people who "coast through" loyalty would win out and they would vote for Jordan. Shelly loves Jordan and wants redemption so she would vote for Jordan also. That's 4 votes so what everyone else would do would be irrelevant. Although I do think Adam would vote Jordan over Porsche, like the couples and Shelly I think he simply likes Jordan a lot more.

Dani and Kalia would almost certainly vote for Porsche, but it wouldn't help.

It would kind of suck, because despite all the talk about hating people who are floating, Jordan has no game. Even Adam's floating is a strategy, if not a cowardly and boring one to watch. Jordan has done nothing but get dragged by her alliance, NOTHING!

I can't even give her props for picking a good alliance, since the couples alliance was pretty much ready made from the get go. Jordan won one challenge that Jeff and Brendon blatantly threw to her. Other than that she has been dead weight.

But it won't matter, The couples alliance wants one of their own to win over a dirty newbie. So if Jordan goes up against a newbie that is what will happen.

Kalia vs Adam - Mostly what I said about Porsche vs Adam applies here. Kalia would have two guaranteed votes in Dani and Porsche, who I don't think would ever vote Adam over Kalia. Adam would have no guaranteed votes except MAYBE Shelly. But unlike Porsche, Shelly likes Kalia so it is even less likley.

Adam has played a lousy game against people who, at least in their own mind, are good game players. And his constant flipping has given no one any reason to have enough loyalty to simply vote for him anyway.

Best case scenario for Adam... Jeff and Jordan would decide he was enough of an ally to vote for him despite the arguments not to, and Shelly voting for him because she likes him. So once more best Adam could hope for is not losing in a landslide.

Truth is, if Kalia or Porsche go up against Adam, his legacy might be the first guy to ever lose to a girl in the final 2 in over a decade the show has been on. At least he would make BB history. He is a super fan, he would like that.

Adam vs Jordan - Short and sweet. Adam would lose by a landslide. Jeff, Brendon, Rachel and Shelly would definitley vote for Jordan and that would be enough. Dani also does not like how Adam has played the game and she will not reward him against Jordan.

Fact is that Adam might think he could argue Jordan has done nothing and been carried by others, but the same thing is true about him. And at least Jordan was loyal to her alliance, not flipping back and forth the second the power changed like a coward.

He might also think the fact Jordan won before would work in his favor, but it won't matter.

Adam would lose to Jordan and unless someone decided he was so pathetic he was deserving of a pity vote he would lose 7-0. Jordan would become the first woman to beat a man in the final 2, while also becoming the first two time winner.

I just can't think of any scenario where Jordan would lose to Adam. With both of them playing basically no game it would come down to who is more likable. Everyone loves Jordan, no one respects Adam. End of story.

Based on all of this, I would say Jordan is poised to pull off a second win as no one except possibly Rachel looks good to beat her. She just has too many votes in the jury house unless Rachel is next to her, forcing her alliance's votes to cancel each other out. Even then it is far from a slam dunk Rachel could beat her.

I don't think Jordan plays a good game, I don't think she plays any game. But ironically, she seems poised to do what Dr. Will, arguably the best game player ever, couldn't do. Go undefeated in Big Brother.

Maybe nice guys, or girls, don't always finish last.

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